REMOVAL OFFTAKE BUSINESS CASE

Lock-in pay-on-delivery
vs the spot market.

Four inputs. Instant year-by-year comparison of a fixed pay-on-delivery offtake at €80.25/t against buying carbon credits on the open market. Spot price forecast from BloombergNEF (BNEF) Removal scenario.

Total spend — Spot
€260,870,000
avg €137.3/t
Total spend — Lock-in (POD)
€152,475,000
flat €80.25/t
Total saving (nominal)
€108,395,000
41.6% vs spot
NPV saving
€47,157,093
@ 8.0% WACC, base 2027

Spot price vs lock-in

Year-by-year €/t. The flat line is your locked-in pay-on-delivery price.

Year-by-year cash flows

100,000 t / yr · 20272045
YearSpot €/tLock-in €/tSpot costLock-in costAnnual savingDiscounted savingCumulative NPV
202790.2580.25€9,025,000€8,025,000€1,000,000€1,000,000€1,000,000
202890.2580.25€9,025,000€8,025,000€1,000,000€925,926€1,925,926
2029118.7580.25€11,875,000€8,025,000€3,850,000€3,300,754€5,226,680
2030133.0080.25€13,300,000€8,025,000€5,275,000€4,187,465€9,414,145
2031123.5080.25€12,350,000€8,025,000€4,325,000€3,179,004€12,593,150
203290.2580.25€9,025,000€8,025,000€1,000,000€680,583€13,273,733
203385.5080.25€8,550,000€8,025,000€525,000€330,839€13,604,572
2034104.5080.25€10,450,000€8,025,000€2,425,000€1,414,964€15,019,536
2035118.7580.25€11,875,000€8,025,000€3,850,000€2,080,035€17,099,571
2036128.2580.25€12,825,000€8,025,000€4,800,000€2,401,195€19,500,766
2037147.2580.25€14,725,000€8,025,000€6,700,000€3,103,396€22,604,163
2038166.2580.25€16,625,000€8,025,000€8,600,000€3,688,393€26,292,555
2039175.7580.25€17,575,000€8,025,000€9,550,000€3,792,436€30,084,992
2040180.5080.25€18,050,000€8,025,000€10,025,000€3,686,172€33,771,163
2041175.7580.25€17,575,000€8,025,000€9,550,000€3,251,403€37,022,566
2042171.0080.25€17,100,000€8,025,000€9,075,000€2,860,818€39,883,385
2043171.0080.25€17,100,000€8,025,000€9,075,000€2,648,906€42,532,291
2044169.1080.25€16,910,000€8,025,000€8,885,000€2,401,340€44,933,630
2045169.1080.25€16,910,000€8,025,000€8,885,000€2,223,463€47,157,093
Total€260,870,000€152,475,000€108,395,000€47,157,093€47,157,093

Discounted at WACC = 8.0%, base year = 2027. Cash flows assumed end-of-year.